My prediction: Oil & Gas Prices: Short-Term Spike, Then a Quick Drop – Trump’s Track Record Says So

Oil prices climbed to around $80 a barrel this week and national average gas is sitting at $3.19 per gallon right now. Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz—where 20% of the world’s oil flows—and hitting refineries in Saudi Arabia and Qatar clearly caused the jump. Nobody expected that part to be painless.

But I still don’t think we’re looking at a long, painful run. The Navy is already positioned to escort tankers if things get worse, and the Development Finance Corporation is offering political risk insurance to keep shipping companies from pulling out completely. The Iranian military has been seriously degraded, the navy practically non-existent at this point, and every day the coalition keeps up the pressure their ability to choke the strait weakens.

OPEC+ already added more than 200,000 barrels per day to output, and Saudi Arabia has spare capacity they can bring online quickly if the conflict stays contained. On top of that, U.S. production is at record levels—Trump has made energy independence a core priority, so we’re not as vulnerable as we used to be.

If the operation wraps up in the 2–4 week window the President has talked about, I expect Brent to peak somewhere in the $90s, maybe touch $100 briefly if nerves stay high, but then fall back below $80 once normal tanker traffic resumes and the market sees supply isn’t going to stay disrupted. At the pump, we might see $3.50 for a couple weeks, but prices usually come down fast once the headlines shift from “crisis” to “resolution.”

Trump has done this before—experts and talking heads always predict doom and gloom, and then he delivers results that fly in the face of those predictions. This feels like one of those times again. Summer driving season is still months away, but I’m betting we’ll be looking at much more reasonable numbers by then. Hang in there.